Is home court a self-fulfilling prophecy?

If you ask me, these NBA playoffs have become a little too predictable. Like top-tier tennis players slugging it out, holding serve until the set reaches a tiebreaker, the remaining teams seem invincible on their home courts.

When the series swaps cities, though, Dr. Jekyll stays home and Mr. Hyde doesn't seem to travel well.

Throughout the regular season, NBA teams playing at home were
769-491 (.611 winning percentage), but keep in mind that includes Miami and Seattle, which were woeful wherever they played. In the Conference Semifinals the home team is 11-1 (.917), with the only defeat coming to the Magic at the hands of the Pistons.

I understand that at home the fans are booing instead of cheering, and players can shoot free throws without the distraction of waving balloons or cowbells. And it makes sense that sleeping in your own bed and preparing in your own locker room and playing on your own home floor give somewhat of an advantage.

But I'm starting to wonder if the expectation of winning at home -- and by extension, losing on the road -- is as great a factor as any. Like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Home teams are supposed to win, so they play more focused, intelligent and physical basketball. Away teams are supposed to lose, so they loosen up the screws a bit, maybe try something different, and the net result is sloppy and/or lethargic play.

My theory is a little bit "out there," so I'd be interested in any other explanations for what we've seen in the last couple of weeks. In the meantime, excuse me while I watch the Hornets win Game 5.

Time for Houston to end the Bourn Experiment

Here's a riddle for the Houston Astros to chew on: how valuable is an incredible base runner that rarely reaches base?

When the Astros acquired Michael Bourn as part of the deal that sent Brad Lidge to Philadelphia, it seemed like a great fit. Bourn was born and raised in Houston, played at the University of Houston, and was originally drafted (but not signed) by the Astros.

Most of all, Houston envisioned a spark plug at the top of the order, a speedy center fielder who could get on and steal bases.

So far Bourn has fulfilled only the less important of the two expectations: he leads the Majors in stolen bases with 17, but that's only because he steals just about every time he reaches base. In 34 games, Bourn is hitting .198 with an OBP of .269.

Make no mistake about it, Bourn's base stealing abilities are outstanding: he hasn't been caught once. But an 0-4 every third night -- and a 1-4 or 1-5 on the other two -- just doesn't get the job done. Among regular Major League leadoff hitters, Bourn ranks near the bottom with just 16 runs scored. Rafael Furcal has 34, and even a slow-starting Ichiro has 26. Teammate Lance Berkman has a Major League-leading 40.

Houston is playing some great baseball at this stage of the season, so it's easy enough to overlook Bourn's struggles. But at some point, a "slow start" or an "early-season slump" are no longer fair descriptors for plain ineptitude.

If the Astros plan to make a run at the NL Central, they need to end the Bourn Experiment sooner rather than later. Let Hunter Pence play center and bat leadoff, and use Bourn in the role best suited for his talents: pinch runner.

Michael Bourn (Wikipedia)
Michael Bourn Statistics (Baseball Reference)