MLB Previews: NL East

When Jimmy Rollins called the Phillies the favorites to win the NL East last season, the average fan would have thought he was just running his mouth. The Braves had owned the division from its inception in 1995, and the Mets were coming off a 97-win season. But last year was a different story: New York caved and Philadelphia surged, and Rollins' words proved correct. This year, Carlos Beltran beat him to the punch and called the Phillies the favorites, attempting to take a little pressure off of New York. I, for one, am not buying it.

New York, like the Yankees, has become a big-spending franchise; the Mets payroll this season is $116.1 million, third in baseball behind the Yankees and the Red Sox. Thirteen million of that is invested in Johan Santana, acquired from Minnesota in what might go down as the steal of the century. Behind Santana, the Mets stack up Pedro Martinez, John Maine, and Oliver Perez, a very solid 2-4 in the rotation. Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Carlos Delgado make for a formidable top of the order. With the sour taste of last year's implosion still fresh in their mouths, these Mets should come out strong, and I think 100 wins is not out of reach.

Because of the way they carry themselves -- if they're confident or arrogant, they sure are quiet about it -- Atlanta has been much overlooked in most predictions about the NL East race. At least, that is until Jayson Stark picked the Braves to win the World Series. Yikes! I like Atlanta, too, but Stark seems to be getting ahead of himself. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine are both in their 40s, and Mike Hampton has missed two entire seasons with injuries. If those three can manage to stay in one piece for the duration of the season, the Braves will be in good shape. But at this point, that's a big "if." Mark Teixeira was a huge addition to the middle of that lineup last season, and I predict he'll be an even greater force as he continues to adjust to the league. Atlanta is a very solid franchise: they are a professionally-run organization, have a world-class manager, and a great blend of youth and experience. This team will contend for the division, and the Wild Card is a good possibility.

It feels strange forecasting Philadelphia, the team that won the division last season, for a third-place finish. But that's how I see it. The Phils have a great corps of talent, but last year somehow felt too perfect. Jimmy Rollins is a great baseball player, but I think he overachieved last season; a .280, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 35 SB season seems more realistic to expect for this year. Good, but not great. And if Rollins isn't great, there will be a trickle-down effect through the rest of the lineup. Cole Hamels anchors what looks like a very average pitching staff, which also includes Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Kyle Kendrick (who wasn't traded to Japan after all!). I always feel a little skeptical about any team that has Brad Lidge as a closer, too; he seems like a nice enough guy, but he has not been the same after that horrible 2005 NLCS and World Series. The Phillies will be in the mix, but I see them finishing several back of the pack.

If you were to chart the successes of the Florida Marlins over their brief history, the result would resemble something like a roller coaster. Or a wave, for those more mathematically inclined. The Marlins have twice developed world champion teams, only to quickly disassemble them when it became clear that keeping them together would be costly. Florida's most recent championship in 2003 may seem like a long way away, but I would guess that we will see the valley of the roller coaster in the next season or two; if the ownership is willing to open the checkbook, sustained success may be here before long. Hanley Ramirez is one of the top five players in the game, and Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, and Andrew Miller should be very fun to watch.

A few days ago, Ken Rosenthal was talking on the radio about how Washington failed to bring in a premier player to attract fans to their new stadium. On the one hand, he's right; I don't know that anyone other than Lastings Milledge would consider Lastings Milledge a big name player. On the other hand, the Nationals do seems to be assembling a young and fairly promising roster -- Milledge, Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes could be productive for a long, long time. And fans are going to come out to the new stadium regardless of the product out on the field, at least this year. But it's up to the management to leverage the increased revenue into some greater depth on their roster and in their farm system.

Predicted Standings

Team~~~~~~~~~~~~~~GB

New York____________--

Atlanta______________3

Philadelphia__________ 5

Florida_____________ 14

Washington__________18

MLB Previews: NL Central

The NL Central: the only six-team division in baseball, and it seems like every year the league about has to beg a team to win it. Chicago backed into the title in 2007 despite posting a record of 85-77, worst among division winners in baseball. The Cubs lost five of their last seven, but managed to edge the Brewers for the right to lose in the first round to Arizona. All in all, the division has the same kind of feel this season; anything can happen once you get to the playoffs, but the most likely scenario for the NL Central winner is a first round exit.

Despite a much tamer offseason than last year, Chicago figures to be right in the thick of things again this season. The addition of Kosuke Fukudome from Japan should bolster the Cubs' outfield, as long as he pans out as advertised -- one analysis calls him a cross between Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. But the biggest move was the one Chicago didn't, or perhaps more fittingly, couldn't make: the move to acquire Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts. The Cubs think they have holes at second base (sorry Mark DeRosa) and in the leadoff slot, and they seem convinced Roberts is the guy to fill both. Regardless, Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez make for a very solid offense. The pitching, on the other hand, could be shaky and may ultimately limit the Cubs' chances in the postseason.

Milwaukee has the best shot at edging the Cubs for the division title. Their bullpen, if it's healthy, has the potential of being one of the best in baseball. Guillermo Mota, Salomon Torres, Derrick Turnbow, and Eric Gagne all have experience as closers, and at their best, the group could be unstoppable. Whether the starting rotation can get the ball to them with a lead is a different question. Ben Sheets tends to be fragile, but when he's healthy he's solid. After Sheets, you've got four #4-5 starters in Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva and Manny Parra. Like most other teams, the Brewers' offense will be a matter of "ifs." Prince Fielder should have another huge year, but will returning to the infield help Bill Hall return to 2006 form? Will moving to the outfield hurt Ryan Braun's chances of repeating his offensive outburst as a rookie? And can J.J. Hardy avoid a midseason collapse and generate steady production all season? If the "ifs" are all answered in Milwaukee's favor, the Brew Crew will give the Cubs a run for their money.

When Dusty Baker took the job in Cincinnati, he walked into an interesting project. The Reds are a franchise that last made the playoffs 13 seasons ago, and while the team has some talent, this will not be the year that snaps the streak of futility. Having said that, the future looks fairly bright. Aaron Harang has the makings of a legitimate ace, and rookie Homer Bailey projects to be a star in the near future. Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas in the trade for Josh Hamilton, projects to make the rotation this year as well. Offensively, second baseman Brandon Phillips was a nice surprise last season, and he, like the others mentioned above, could become the face of the franchise in the near future. Adam Dunn will be a free agent next season, and Ken Griffey, Jr. would become one if Cincinnati passes on its $16.5 million club buyout; if the Reds aren't in contention at the All-Star break, look for both to be traded for prospects.

I'm not quite sure what Houston was thinking when they traded five players for Miguel Tejada this offseason, a deal that coincidentally was struck the day before the release of the Mitchell Report. At 31, Tejada is by no means over the hill, but it's hard to know what to expect from a guy with the baggage uncovered in the Mitchell Report. He plays every game almost every year, (his "iron man" streak ended because of a wrist injury last season), but his power numbers have been down in each of the last three years. If Tejada can return to form, though, he'll be part of a great lineup that includes Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee. The Astros' pitching, however, is less exciting. After the always-solid Roy Oswalt, there's Woody Williams, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, and Chris Sampson. How's that for an intimidating rotation?

St. Louis was desperately in need of pitching this season, and what it got was Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals' rotation, which will be without Chris Carpenter until at least July, could be one of the worst in the Majors. When Adam Wainright is your Opening Day starter, you know you've got some problems. There are major question marks on offense, as well. Albert Pujols has a torn ligament in his right elbow and may eventually need Tommy John surgery, but he plans to play through the pain this year. Rick Ankiel was great for a few weeks last year but withered after news about his past HGH use came out, and newly acquired Troy Glaus is a former juicer and fragile to boot. So if Pujols goes down, that leaves Chris Duncan as your team slugger. It could be a long season for Cardinals fans, but they should take comfort in the fact that they don't root for the Pirates or Reds.

If you were creating a division for the worst teams in baseball, Pittsburgh might be your first selection. Their rotation is thin, their lineup is thin, and aside from Jason Bay, the best adjective you can bestow upon anyone on the roster is "decent." Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell have potential to become decent starters, and if Zach Duke can return to his form of 2005 and 2006, the Pirates rotation could be OK. But for the most part, this is a franchise that doesn't seem to know where it's going and it's getting there fast. For those of you scoring at home, Pittsburgh has a team payroll of $38.6 million, fifth lowest in the Major Leagues.

PREDICTED STANDINGS

Team~~~~~~~~~~GB

Chicago_________--

Milwaukee_______ 2

Cincinnati________6

Houston________ 10

St. Louis________ 12

Pittsburgh_______18

MLB Previews: NL West

With real-life, start keeping stats action opening a week from Monday, I figure it's about time to start my Major League Baseball season previews. I'll post one division at a time, and if it's a good day I may squeeze in two divisions. Between a busy week at work and a move from an apartment into a house, that may be all that happens here this week.

Starting with the NL West, which the Diamondbacks won by 1/2 game last year. Had to double-check that one, as the Rockies insane run that propelled them into the World Series made them seem like the best in the west.

The Diamondbacks made the most improvements over the off-season, the biggest of which was the trade that brought in Dan Haren from Oakland. Brandon Webb, Haren, and Randy Johnson -- if he's anything like healthy -- make up a top of the rotation that would rival any in baseball. Doug Davis and Micah Owings aren't a bad 4-5, either. Their lineup is young, and with Eric Byrnes as the best thing it's got going, Arizona could struggle offensively at times. Even so, pitching and defense win championships and I think that the Diamondbacks rotation sets them apart from the rest of the West.

The Rockies' appearance in last year's World Series came as a surprise to just about everyone, probably themselves included. Colorado had a very young and inexperienced roster heading into the playoffs, but only one of those labels still applies. The Rockies got hot at just the right time, and as the Cardinals proved the season before, an average season can be quickly forgotten with a surge of late-season momentum. I expect Colorado to struggle this season, especially once they realize winning 22 of 23 (or whatever it was) is a once-in-a-career phenomenon. Also, it's tough to predict whether everyone on the roster had a career season in 2007, or if guys like Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki are just getting started.

For 160 games, San Diego was the best team in the NL West. But one out away from clinching the division, Trevor Hoffman coughed it up and the Padres failed to make the postseason. You have to think it's been a very long off-season. Somewhat typically, though, San Diego had a quiet off-season. GM Kevin Towers traded for aging centerfielder Jim Edmonds, signed LHP Randy Wolf, and bought the rights to pay Mark Prior's salary while he recovers from his latest injury. It's been a long time since the Padres wowed anyone with the big names on their roster, but they always seem to be in the hunt.

Things haven't gone well for the Dodgers this spring, and it wouldn't break my heart to see their struggles continue well beyond Opening Day. Jeff Kent has been bothered by a nagging hamstring and Nomar Garciaparra will likely start the season out with an injured wrist. Third baseman Andy LaRoche will miss the start of the season with a torn ligament in his thumb. Injuries aside, the Dodgers are a team loaded with young talent, not unlike the Rockies. Russell Martin had a breakout season last year; this season the distinction may belong to Andre Ethier. Even so, the nagging injuries and the apparent lack of chemistry that has troubled the team over the last few seasons will keep Los Angeles out of contention.

For the most part, the Giants' roster is a bad combination of has-beens (Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel) and never will bes (Fred Lewis, Jack Taschner, Rajai Davis). In short, if it wasn't for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, San Francisco would be indistinguishable from a AAA team. If that sounds harsh, understand that it pains me to say it more than it would anger naive Giants fans to read it; I've been a die-hard San Francisco fan since 1989. Having said that, let's focus on the good. I expect 10-15 wins each from Lincecum and Cain -- not bad for a team that may not crack 70 victories for the entire season -- and ERAs in the 3.75 range. If Zito can manage to return to Cy Young form, which seems highly unlikely given his ghastly 10.31 spring ERA, the Giants could actually be decent. More than likely, though, they'll be shipping off their older players for a player to be named later or a resin bag and a tub of sunflower seeds.

PREDICTED STANDINGS

Team GB

Arizona --

Colorado 3

San Diego 8

Los Angeles 13

San Francisco 18