Here's a riddle for the Houston Astros to chew on: how valuable is an incredible base runner that rarely reaches base?When the Astros acquired Michael Bourn as part of the deal that sent Brad Lidge to Philadelphia, it seemed like a great fit. Bourn was born and raised in Houston, played at the University of Houston, and was originally drafted (but not signed) by the Astros.
Most of all, Houston envisioned a spark plug at the top of the order, a speedy center fielder who could get on and steal bases.
So far Bourn has fulfilled only the less important of the two expectations: he leads the Majors in stolen bases with 17, but that's only because he steals just about every time he reaches base. In 34 games, Bourn is hitting .198 with an OBP of .269.
Make no mistake about it, Bourn's base stealing abilities are outstanding: he hasn't been caught once. But an 0-4 every third night -- and a 1-4 or 1-5 on the other two -- just doesn't get the job done. Among regular Major League leadoff hitters, Bourn ranks near the bottom with just 16 runs scored. Rafael Furcal has 34, and even a slow-starting Ichiro has 26. Teammate Lance Berkman has a Major League-leading 40.
Houston is playing some great baseball at this stage of the season, so it's easy enough to overlook Bourn's struggles. But at some point, a "slow start" or an "early-season slump" are no longer fair descriptors for plain ineptitude.
If the Astros plan to make a run at the NL Central, they need to end the Bourn Experiment sooner rather than later. Let Hunter Pence play center and bat leadoff, and use Bourn in the role best suited for his talents: pinch runner.
Michael Bourn (Wikipedia)
Michael Bourn Statistics (Baseball Reference)
Make no mistake about it, Bourn's base stealing abilities are outstanding: he hasn't been caught once. But an 0-4 every third night -- and a 1-4 or 1-5 on the other two -- just doesn't get the job done. Among regular Major League leadoff hitters, Bourn ranks near the bottom with just 16 runs scored. Rafael Furcal has 34, and even a slow-starting Ichiro has 26. Teammate Lance Berkman has a Major League-leading 40.
Houston is playing some great baseball at this stage of the season, so it's easy enough to overlook Bourn's struggles. But at some point, a "slow start" or an "early-season slump" are no longer fair descriptors for plain ineptitude.
If the Astros plan to make a run at the NL Central, they need to end the Bourn Experiment sooner rather than later. Let Hunter Pence play center and bat leadoff, and use Bourn in the role best suited for his talents: pinch runner.
Michael Bourn (Wikipedia)
Michael Bourn Statistics (Baseball Reference)
13 comments:
i agree with you on this one, but i think he should be more of a 4th oufielder, not just a pinch runner. he has only had 130+ career at bats.. split centerfield time w/ jose cruz jr and erstad.. see what happens
While Bourn has definitely had a slow start, I've gotta disagree with you that it's time to pull the plug, for several reasons.
First, this is Bourn's first season as a full-time starter, and some adjustment time is to be expected. He's been having some good at bats lately, and has been working counts pretty well. He's even hitting the ball hard, but just not getting hits.
Second, his defense isn't mentioned among his assets, and that's a glaring omission. Poke around MLB.com's video section, and find the clip of his catch yesterday against the Dodgers. It's Mays-esque. If he's not producing runs, at least he's preventing them.
Finally, there's not anyone else to take his place. Darin Erstad is the most likely candidate, but he's almost a defensive liability in center. Ask the Astros pitching staff who they'd rather have patroling Minute Maid Park's expansive CF. Plus, Erstad's not exactly a prototype leadoff guy, either.
Young players struggle. Check back in July and see if he's not at least at .310 OBP.
Gotta agree with you on pulling him out of the leadoff spot. I don't know anything about Houston's lineup(Phillies fan), but his defense is extraordinary as an OF and maybe you can just bury him in the lineup.
Thanks for Brad Lidge by the way(not gloating, general thanks).
Really interesting points, Ted. I watched that video clip, and you're right, it was an incredible play. Maybe they should keep him in center and just DH for him?
Kevin, instead of making snarky comments, you might want to strongly consider Ted's points. He's 100% correct.
Why would the Astros bench Michael Bourn when the offense is killing opposing pitchers? What purpose would it serve? To destroy the confidence of the guy they've tabbed to be their speedy leadoff hitter of the future?
The Astros are getting great production from their lineup right now. They're 15-5 over their last 20 games and 1 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central. No one would argue the point that Michael Bourn is struggling, but put his struggles in their proper context. Bourn has less than 260 major league at-bats, and he got on base at a .348 clip last year with the Phillies. The OBP liability he brings is offset by his speed and outstanding defense and the middle of the order's torrid offense. And you think they should just give up on him even though he's an integral piece of the club's future?
What nonsense. He needs to see more pitches, not less. He has to learn to 1) take more pitches, 2) let the ball come deeper in the zone and hit it to left instead of trying to pull it to right, and 3) bunt more often to keep the defense guessing. He won't learn these skills on the bench, so he's gotta play. If he continues to struggle into the middle of the season and the offense slumps and the team goes on a prolonged slump, then I can understand the rationale for benching him temporarily, but there's no question that Micheal Bourn is the leadoff hitter of the Houston Astros.
If you bench Bourn, who plays center? Erstad is primarily a bench player, a veteran presence to guide the youngsters. He can play some center but not on a regular basis. Cruz isn't much of an offensive upgrade and his defense isn't as good as Bourn's. Pence may be a better hitter, but his free-swinging style isn't suited to the leadoff spot and he's a defensive mess in center.
The best lineup is the one Ed Wade envisioned when he traded for Bourn and signed Matsui. They have tremendous speed at the top and big bashers behind 'em. If it ain't broke....
Thanks for the insight, Anonymous. You're right that Bourn should be given more time to develop before being written off, but I maintain my point that the Houston offense is succeeding in spite of his presence at leadoff, not at all because of it. Imagine how well they would be doing if their leadoff hitter got on base even 3 times out of 10.
And as for the DH comment, nothing "snarky" intended by it. I was just being facetious.
There is every reason to believe that Bourn will come around as a hitter. His OBP in 397 minor league games is .377 and last year he posted a .348 OBP in 105 games with the Phillies.
That having been said, he shouldn't be batting leadoff right now. He should probably be batting further towards the bottom of the order.
The problem is that, while the middle of the order is hitting very well, there are several regulars (Towles, Blum) who are hitting poorly.
Until Bourn's bat gets going, the Astros should probably do this:
2B - Matsui
RF - Pence
SS - Tejada
1B - Berkman
LF - Lee
3B - Wiggington
C - Towles
CF - Bourn
PITCHER
This puts lets Bourn be aggressive on the basepath in front of a pitcher who can bunt him over to second or third and set up the top of the order with a runner in scoring position.
Jeremiah,
Batting Bourn in the 8 hole would not be good for his development. He wouldn't see any good pitches. Batting him lead-off is the best option because opposing teams have to pitch to him. They do not want to see Berkman or Lee come up with runners on base. I agree that the 'Stros need to give him more time to develop. He definitely needs more patience at the plate. But with the line-up after him, everything should be ok.
Even with Bourn's AVG and OBP being low at the time, this line-up is still better than the last 4-5 years of automatic outs in the 7-8-9 hole (Everett-Ausmus-Pitcher). It's nice to have a solid line-up of guys who can actually get hits and get on base, even in the 7-8 hole. This is what the Astros have lacked in years past, and what will take them to the playoffs.
He definitley should bunt more, and could be used like Willy Taveras a few years ago. I was sad to see Taveras go (esp. for what they got in return). But Bourn has more tools than Taveras. When he does get on base, look out. I give him until the All-Star break to perform (if the offense stays as hot as it is now). Right now, Berkman is the MVP of the NL. If he keeps this up, as long as 1 of the 3 batters in front of him is on base before he bats, the team will score enough runs to win.
I see what you are saying about Bourn's development, but I disagree that teams would be significantly less likely to pitch to him in the 8 hole.
Bourn's speed on the bases makes it a losing proposition to walk him and set up an easy sac bunt (or steal and sac bunt) for the pitcher.
Bourn doesn't need to see better pitches, he needs to stop swinging at bad ones. He has only 13 walks and 33 strikeouts. If they try to pitch around him at the bottom of the order, he can sit back and let them put him on for free. They wont do that for long.
Basically, its the same problem the Mets had with Reyes in 2005, blazing speed (60 SB) but poor plate discipline (.300 OBP). The Mets kept batting him leadoff, and Reyes came around in 2006 and 2007 (.354 OBP in both years). So its certainly possible for Bourn to come around, you would just like to see him doing less damage to the Stro's offense until he gets right.
You're right that Bourn should be given more time to develop before being written off, but I maintain my point that the Houston offense is succeeding in spite of his presence at leadoff, not at all because of it. Imagine how well they would be doing if their leadoff hitter got on base even 3 times out of 10.
I concede the point that Bourn needs to improve his on-base average, but his presence at leadoff is not hurting the team. If you're convinced the Astros should "end the Bourn experiment" solely because he's getting on base every 2.7 ABs instead of 3 (within a small sample size), you need a reality check. Look at the offense's numbers. Consider the positive psychological effect all the come-from-behind wins lately are having on the team. There is absolutely no reason to bench Michael Bourn. I realize that internet armchair GMs think box scores and SABR stats give them special insight to offer free advice to teams they don't actually watch, but OBP doesn't always tell the full story, and it certainly doesn't in Bourn's case.
Ed Wade had a smart plan in constructing the current Astros lineup-- use Bourn and Matsui to set the table with speed and let Tejada-Berkman-Lee-Pence drive them home.
Bourn's best fit is at leadoff and not towards the bottom of the order. Matsui's speed and bat-handling skills make him a perfect fit for the two-hole in the order. Pence should not bat at the top because he's not very good at taking pitches and making the pitcher work to get him out. Pence is a very talented hitter, but he's a sucker for the breaking stuff, and if you move him out of the six hole and replace him with Wigginton, Carlos Lee is going to see fewer hittable pitches.
Bourn
Matsui
Tejada
Berkman
Lee
Pence
Wigginton
Towles
P
is much, much better than
Pence
Matsui
Tejada
Berkman
Lee
Wigginton
Erstad/Cruz
Towles
Bourn's best fit is at leadoff and not towards the bottom of the order. Matsui's speed and bat-handling skills make him a perfect fit for the two-hole in the order. Pence should not bat at the top because he's not very good at taking pitches and making the pitcher work to get him out. Pence is a very talented hitter, but he's a sucker for the breaking stuff, and if you move him out of the six hole and replace him with Wigginton, Carlos Lee is going to see fewer hittable pitches.
You are absolutely right that Bourn's eventual best fit is at leadoff, but it's hard to claim that, as he is hitting right now, he is currently the best leadoff hitter on the team.
The truth is, until Bourn gets right, the Astros don't have a prototypical leadoff hitter (high OBP and good speed). So I can certainly respect the decision to let him work it out at the top of the order.
The idea that Bourn should lose playing time to Erstad or Jose Cruz is laughably ridiculous. Those guys are old, play mediocre defense, and still cant hit or get on base.
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