New York, like the Yankees, has become a big-spending franchise; the Mets payroll this season is $116.1 million, third in baseball behind the Yankees and the Red Sox. Thirteen million of that is invested in Johan Santana, acquired from Minnesota in what might go down as the steal of the century. Behind Santana, the Mets stack up Pedro Martinez, John Maine, and Oliver Perez, a very solid 2-4 in the rotation. Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Carlos Delgado make for a formidable top of the order. With the sour taste of last year's implosion still fresh in their mouths, these Mets should come out strong, and I think 100 wins is not out of reach.Because of the way they carry themselves -- if they're confident or arrogant, they sure are quiet
about it -- Atlanta has been much overlooked in most predictions about the NL East race. At least, that is until Jayson Stark picked the Braves to win the World Series. Yikes! I like Atlanta, too, but Stark seems to be getting ahead of himself. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine are both in their 40s, and Mike Hampton has missed two entire seasons with injuries. If those three can manage to stay in one piece for the duration of the season, the Braves will be in good shape. But at this point, that's a big "if." Mark Teixeira was a huge addition to the middle of that lineup last season, and I predict he'll be an even greater force as he continues to adjust to the league. Atlanta is a very solid franchise: they are a professionally-run organization, have a world-class manager, and a great blend of youth and experience. This team will contend for the division, and the Wild Card is a good possibility.
It feels strange forecasting Philadelphia, the team that won the division last season, for a third-place finish. But that's how I see it. The Phils have a great corps of talent, but last year somehow felt too perfect. Jimmy Rollins is a great baseball player, but I think he overachieved last season; a .280, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 35 SB season seems more realistic to expect for this year. Good, but not great. And if Rollins isn't great, there will be a trickle-down effect through the rest of the lineup. Cole Hamels anchors what looks like a very average pitching staff, which also includes Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Kyle Kendrick (who wasn't traded to Japan after all!). I always feel a little skeptical about any team that has Brad Lidge as a closer, too; he seems like a nice enough guy, but he has not been the same after that horrible 2005 NLCS and World Series. The Phillies will be in the mix, but I see them finishing several back of the pack.If you were to chart the successes of the Florida Marlins over their brief history, the result
would resemble something like a roller coaster. Or a wave, for those more mathematically inclined. The Marlins have twice developed world champion teams, only to quickly disassemble them when it became clear that keeping them together would be costly. Florida's most recent championship in 2003 may seem like a long way away, but I would guess that we will see the valley of the roller coaster in the next season or two; if the ownership is willing to open the checkbook, sustained success may be here before long. Hanley Ramirez is one of the top five players in the game, and Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, and Andrew Miller should be very fun to watch.
would resemble something like a roller coaster. Or a wave, for those more mathematically inclined. The Marlins have twice developed world champion teams, only to quickly disassemble them when it became clear that keeping them together would be costly. Florida's most recent championship in 2003 may seem like a long way away, but I would guess that we will see the valley of the roller coaster in the next season or two; if the ownership is willing to open the checkbook, sustained success may be here before long. Hanley Ramirez is one of the top five players in the game, and Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, and Andrew Miller should be very fun to watch.
A few days ago, Ken Rosenthal was talking on the radio about how Washington failed to bring in a premier player to attract fans to their new stadium. On the one hand, he's right; I don't know that anyone other than Lastings Milledge would consider Lastings Milledge a big name player. On the other hand, the Nationals do seems to be assembling a young and fairly promising roster -- Milledge, Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes could be productive for a long, long time. And fans are going to come out to the new stadium regardless of the product out on the field, at least this year. But it's up to the management to leverage the increased revenue into some greater depth on their roster and in their farm system.Predicted Standings
Team~~~~~~~~~~~~~~GB
New York____________--
Atlanta______________3
Philadelphia__________ 5
Florida_____________ 14
Washington__________18
2 comments:
I like the Mets here obviously, but I think the Phillies will finish above the Braves once again. Expect Rollins to have another amazing season.
I like all of that except Washington may get to 4th. I really think that the Mets could do some damage this season.
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