Mar 24, 2008

MLB Previews: NL Central

The NL Central: the only six-team division in baseball, and it seems like every year the league about has to beg a team to win it. Chicago backed into the title in 2007 despite posting a record of 85-77, worst among division winners in baseball. The Cubs lost five of their last seven, but managed to edge the Brewers for the right to lose in the first round to Arizona. All in all, the division has the same kind of feel this season; anything can happen once you get to the playoffs, but the most likely scenario for the NL Central winner is a first round exit.

Despite a much tamer offseason than last year, Chicago figures to be right in the thick of things again this season. The addition of Kosuke Fukudome from Japan should bolster the Cubs' outfield, as long as he pans out as advertised -- one analysis calls him a cross between Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. But the biggest move was the one Chicago didn't, or perhaps more fittingly, couldn't make: the move to acquire Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts. The Cubs think they have holes at second base (sorry Mark DeRosa) and in the leadoff slot, and they seem convinced Roberts is the guy to fill both. Regardless, Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez make for a very solid offense. The pitching, on the other hand, could be shaky and may ultimately limit the Cubs' chances in the postseason.

Milwaukee has the best shot at edging the Cubs for the division title. Their bullpen, if it's healthy, has the potential of being one of the best in baseball. Guillermo Mota, Salomon Torres, Derrick Turnbow, and Eric Gagne all have experience as closers, and at their best, the group could be unstoppable. Whether the starting rotation can get the ball to them with a lead is a different question. Ben Sheets tends to be fragile, but when he's healthy he's solid. After Sheets, you've got four #4-5 starters in Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva and Manny Parra. Like most other teams, the Brewers' offense will be a matter of "ifs." Prince Fielder should have another huge year, but will returning to the infield help Bill Hall return to 2006 form? Will moving to the outfield hurt Ryan Braun's chances of repeating his offensive outburst as a rookie? And can J.J. Hardy avoid a midseason collapse and generate steady production all season? If the "ifs" are all answered in Milwaukee's favor, the Brew Crew will give the Cubs a run for their money.

When Dusty Baker took the job in Cincinnati, he walked into an interesting project. The Reds are a franchise that last made the playoffs 13 seasons ago, and while the team has some talent, this will not be the year that snaps the streak of futility. Having said that, the future looks fairly bright. Aaron Harang has the makings of a legitimate ace, and rookie Homer Bailey projects to be a star in the near future. Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas in the trade for Josh Hamilton, projects to make the rotation this year as well. Offensively, second baseman Brandon Phillips was a nice surprise last season, and he, like the others mentioned above, could become the face of the franchise in the near future. Adam Dunn will be a free agent next season, and Ken Griffey, Jr. would become one if Cincinnati passes on its $16.5 million club buyout; if the Reds aren't in contention at the All-Star break, look for both to be traded for prospects.

I'm not quite sure what Houston was thinking when they traded five players for Miguel Tejada this offseason, a deal that coincidentally was struck the day before the release of the Mitchell Report. At 31, Tejada is by no means over the hill, but it's hard to know what to expect from a guy with the baggage uncovered in the Mitchell Report. He plays every game almost every year, (his "iron man" streak ended because of a wrist injury last season), but his power numbers have been down in each of the last three years. If Tejada can return to form, though, he'll be part of a great lineup that includes Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee. The Astros' pitching, however, is less exciting. After the always-solid Roy Oswalt, there's Woody Williams, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, and Chris Sampson. How's that for an intimidating rotation?

St. Louis was desperately in need of pitching this season, and what it got was Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals' rotation, which will be without Chris Carpenter until at least July, could be one of the worst in the Majors. When Adam Wainright is your Opening Day starter, you know you've got some problems. There are major question marks on offense, as well. Albert Pujols has a torn ligament in his right elbow and may eventually need Tommy John surgery, but he plans to play through the pain this year. Rick Ankiel was great for a few weeks last year but withered after news about his past HGH use came out, and newly acquired Troy Glaus is a former juicer and fragile to boot. So if Pujols goes down, that leaves Chris Duncan as your team slugger. It could be a long season for Cardinals fans, but they should take comfort in the fact that they don't root for the Pirates or Reds.

If you were creating a division for the worst teams in baseball, Pittsburgh might be your first selection. Their rotation is thin, their lineup is thin, and aside from Jason Bay, the best adjective you can bestow upon anyone on the roster is "decent." Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell have potential to become decent starters, and if Zach Duke can return to his form of 2005 and 2006, the Pirates rotation could be OK. But for the most part, this is a franchise that doesn't seem to know where it's going and it's getting there fast. For those of you scoring at home, Pittsburgh has a team payroll of $38.6 million, fifth lowest in the Major Leagues.

PREDICTED STANDINGS
Team~~~~~~~~~~GB
Chicago_________--
Milwaukee_______ 2
Cincinnati________6
Houston________ 10
St. Louis________ 12
Pittsburgh_______18