Handicapping the NL Pennant Races

As promised, here's a look at the NL playoff races as we approach the stretch run.

NL EAST

Current Standings: New York leads Philadelphia by 5 games, Atlanta by 6

The Mets are kind of the Red Sox of the National League, with an extremely deep lineup. Their starting pitching isn't as solid, and that could be to their detriment if things get close. The Phillies got a big boost from the return of Chase Utley yesterday, but they have just three away games against the Mets remaining to make up ground. They'll have to win and hope to get help from the Nationals and Marlins, which seems unlikely. Atlanta looked like it could contend to start the season, but its investments in bullpen pitching (Bob Wickman and Mike Gonzalez) just haven't paid off.

New York Schedule / Philadelphia Schedule / Atlanta Schedule
Prediction: New York wins by 7 games


NL CENTRAL

Current Standings: Chicago leads Milwaukee by 1.5, St. Louis by 2, and Cincinnati by 6.5

Ah, the division that nobody wants. Even with the division lead in tow, the Cubs couldn't have been more ready for the return of Alfonso Soriano yesterday, who they will need to provide an offensive spark at the top of their lineup. The Brewers need as much or more of a boost from the return of Ben Sheets, who has been missing since mid-July. The Cardinals' pitching has struggled mightily all season, but they're the Cardinals, and they've been here before. The Reds are a nice story, but I see them as a non-factor at this point.

Chicago Schedule / Milwaukee Schedule / Cincinnati Schedule
Prediction: St. Louis surges to a 2 game victory over Chicago


NL WEST

Current Standings: Arizona leads San Diego by 2, Los Angeles by 5.5, and Colorado by 6.5

Despite the "revival" of David Wells in Los Angeles, I think this division will by won by the Diamondbacks or Padres. Arizona has been a great story all season, and they've kept putting together wins with a very young roster. But as it's been pointed out, they have a negative run differential. I'm not exactly a stathead, but I see them leveling out a bit in this last month of the season. San Diego, meanwhile, has all the makings of a division winner. They have consistent hitting that's heating up at the right time, and a very solid pitching rotation with Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, and Chris Young. If Trevor Hoffman can regain his form, they'll be tough to beat.

Arizona Schedule / San Diego Schedule / Los Angeles Schedule / Colorado Schedule
Prediction: San Diego beats Arizona by 4 games

NL WILD CARD

Despite some disappointing investments in Bob Wickman and Mike Gonzalez, the Braves have a pretty deep lineup and more than a decent bullpen. Atlanta knows how to reach the playoffs, and Chipper Jones and John Smoltz know they don't have too many more chances. I expect to see them get it done.

Prediction: Atlanta edges Arizona by 2 games